Sports betting is full of practices that many punters follow without any question. Unfortunately, not all of them are true. Some of these myths can lead to bad decisions and costly mistakes, which may frustrate you when things don’t go your way. Understanding the truth behind these fallacies is key to betting smarter.
When you know what’s real and what’s just a common myth, you can place more informed bets and even boost your chances of success. Whether you’re new to betting or have been at it for a while, knowing the biggest sports betting myths and how to improve your bets can make all the difference.
Biggest sports betting myths: Debunked
Sports betting isn’t as simple as picking a winner and hoping for the best. The outcome of any match is influenced by team form, player stats, and even weather conditions. Yet, many punters still believe in myths with little to no real basis.
This is why features like Sportsbet.io’s Global Squads bring a fresh perspective. Instead of relying on outdated myths, you can track an actual player’s stats for a week, and help with your prediction-making skills. This approach is a great way to show the importance of understanding stats and performances when betting.
For a bettor who’s excited to watch top teams battle it out on the field and place bets on their thrilling games, it’s a must to separate facts from fiction.
Here are some of the most common sports betting myths—debunked:
The ‘due’ factor
Many punters believe in the ‘Gambler’s Fallacy’, or one’s belief that past random events can influence future events. This belief made many bettors think that after a losing streak, a win is certain.
Just because a team has lost five games in a row doesn’t mean they are due for a win in their next game. The same logic applies to your bets. Losing multiple times doesn’t increase your chances of winning the next one.
Sports betting is all about luck
Winning on a bet can feel like it’s purely your luck, but long-term success in sports betting is built on research and smart strategies.
Thriving punters don’t just rely on gut feelings or beliefs. They study data—team stats, matchups, and betting trends to place informed bets. A solid betting strategy can also help you identify value bets, which is key to big returns over time.
Sportsbooks have inside information
Some bettors assume that sportsbooks already know the game results even before it starts, but this isn’t true. Bookmakers don’t predict results—they set odds based on stats and betting trends. If they know the outcomes beforehand, they wouldn’t need to adjust odds or limit certain bets.
Games can be rigged
The idea that sports betting is rigged might be one of the biggest myths out there. Major leagues employ strict rules to prevent match-fixing or setting up a matchup ahead, which makes any games less likely to be rigged.
Bookmakers also monitor unusual betting patterns on their sites to detect suspicious activities. While small cases of match-fixing have happened, they are relatively rare. If rigging is widespread, sportsbooks won’t risk offering millions in betting options.
Injuries give you an edge
Some punters assume that when a key player gets injured, the opposing team is set for a win. While injuries can impact plays, it doesn’t mean the team fumbles. The substitute could be just as good, and they may take victory. Many bettors tend to be dramatic with injury reports, but the key here is to first analyse how it’ll affect the team’s strategy rather than blindly going against them.
You can be banned for winning too much
It’s a typical scare among bettors to say that sportsbooks will ban you if you win too often. But they aren’t likely to flag you just because you’ve won and they’re not losing profit from your winnings. The real issue arises when bettors are proven of cheating, misconduct or any attempt at fraud. They do ban, but only those who consistently beat the closing lines.
The better team is always the better bet
Favourites don’t always provide you with the best value. Most bettors would go basic and just bet on the better team, but what matters is the research you’re doing. Game stats and data are your key to peeking at how a match may unfold.
Also, sportsbooks set odds based on trends, not just team strength. This means that highly favoured teams get inflated odds, which can result in overpriced lines that aren’t worth any bets.
It’s bettors vs sportsbooks
Many punters think bookmakers are their enemies, taking advantage of their lost bets to make money. In reality, they make money through the ‘vig’ or their house edge included in the odds and not on your losses. You are essentially competing against other bettors, with the sportsbook managing the bets and securing a profit.
Not luck, but strategies: Sports betting tips
No seasoned bettor places a bet mindlessly. Instead of relying on gut feelings, they wager based on research, discipline, and smart strategies. They also manage their bankroll, ensuring they don’t chase losses. If you want to bet smarter and improve your winning odds, consider these key sports betting tactics:
Start with small bets
Avoid going all-in on a single bet, especially as a newbie. It’s always wiser to wager a small percentage of your bankroll per bet (about 1% to 5%). This way, you reduce risk and stay in the game longer, which also allows you to adjust and refine your strategies in the long run.
Do line shopping
Sportsbooks offer different odds. If you only bet on one site, you’re missing out on better payouts elsewhere. Line shopping is one of the simplest betting tactics you can do as it follows a simple premise: compare the odds across multiple sportsbooks to find the best value for your bet.
Keep track of your bets
A betting journal can help you understand your strengths and errors when wagering. Recording details like bet type, odds, outcome, and why you chose them allows you to analyse trends and improve your decision-making skills. It’s a simple yet effective way to be a smarter bettor.
Try sports betting systems
Many seasoned bettors use betting systems to manage their funds and boost their chances of long-term success. While no strategy guarantees a win, a well-put approach can minimise losses. Here are a few popular ones:
● Flat betting
Flat betting is one of the safest betting strategies you can use as it involves wagering the same amount on every bet, regardless of your confidence level or game odds.
This approach helps manage risk and preserve your bankroll. Losing streaks also won’t drain your funds quickly, and winning streaks will build profits. It’s a solid tactic for rookies who want to work on their betting discipline.
● Zigzag theory
The zigzag theory is often used in NBA and NHL Playoff betting. It’s based on the idea that teams often bounce back after a loss, especially if the next match will be on their home court. This back-and-forth results in a zigzag pattern, hence the name.
NBA stats showed that teams who lose their first game win their next home match 64.5% of the time. It’s a tactic best used together with team analysis and betting trends.
● Kelly Criterion
This is a more advanced bankroll management tactic, which punters use to determine the ideal bet size to place based on the expected value. It’s designed to maximise profit while reducing any risks. It follows this formula:
Where:
■ B = decimal odds
■ P = chances of winning
■ Q = probability of losing (1 – P)
Breaking myths for smarter bets
A handful of sports betting myths have existed for years, and blindly following them can lead to poor decisions and losses. Instead of relying on luck, focus on research, strategy, and smart betting habits. This way, you’re never going to be fooled by false beliefs.
If you’re up for a challenge, you can check exclusive features like Sportsbet.io’s Global Squads where you can practise making predictions as you keep track of goalscoring stats. Be familiar with game stats, bag big wins, and you’ll never have to rely on myths again.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.