Farm Bill graphic | The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
With the start of the next Trump administration and the appointment of Brooke Rollins as the next U.S. Secretary of Agriculture at the USDA, many involved in agriculture and related industries are wondering when the passing of a new Farm Bill will be made a priority.
However, economic uncertainty, particularly in the farming sector, and a new budget plan aren’t inspiring much hope in lawmakers, farmers, and researchers on the passage of a new Farm Bill in the near future.
The Current 2018 Farm Bill
The current Farm Bill, also known as the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018, was passed during the first Trump Administration. Having an initial five-year lifespan, it has now been prolonged twice through one-year extensions. The most recent extension was passed as part of the American Relief Act at the end of the Biden administration in December 2024, moving the expiration date to Sept. 30, 2025.
This second extension has provided the current iteration of Congress more time to work on a new Farm Bill, but, in turn, has made its passing less of a priority. As the new administration hammers out its agenda, its focus is elsewhere, and the (now) distant deadline of the Farm Bill has been pushed to the back burner.
The Complicated Fate of a New Farm Bill
So, what else is making the fate of the next Farm Bill uncertain for the foreseeable future?
First is the economic instability currently hitting the agricultural sector. Due to funding freezes, layoffs, and miscommunication on programs that may or may not have a future during the current Trump administration, many in the industry aren’t sure how to proceed.
The situation isn’t helped by an expected increase in extreme weather events in 2025 (of which the funding of disaster aid is also in flux) and the potential impact of proposed tariffs on Canada, China, Mexico, and the European Union (EU).
The other major reason for a setback in the progress of the new Farm Bill is the current focus on setting a new budget. With Republicans in control of both houses of Congress, Trump’s new spending bill passed through the U.S. House of Representatives and will shortly arrive before the Senate. In addition to providing massive tax cuts, this new budget plan calls for substantial reductions in agriculture spending programs, including the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). With a large rollback of SNAP and other agriculture-related programs, the economic impact on farm-heavy districts in the U.S. will be significant, as the government will be purchasing considerably less product from local growers to meet the reduced demands of such programs.
All of these factors should, ideally, be addressed in the new Farm Bill, in addition to current needs related to crop insurance, labor costs, market expansion, and more. Therefore, until there is a better understanding and clarity on how these decisions will impact the industry in the short and long term, creating a new norm, the drafting of a new Farm Bill is likely to be delayed.
How Midterm Elections Impact Farm Bill Passage
Lastly, there is the issue of the midterm elections of 2026. It, unfortunately, seems like there is always a political campaign around the corner in the U.S. Despite the 2024 presidential election barely being in the rearview mirror, the midterms of 2026 loom large before many lawmakers, which will put all 435 seats in the House and 33 of 100 seats in the Senate up for election.
As the midterm elections draw closer, all legislation, including a potential new Farm Bill, is made more complicated, according to Farm Policy News. This is because many politicians need to shift their focus to running a campaign, and the potential power balance of Congress is threatened. That is to say, if the control of the House and/or Senate is expected to flip during the midterm elections, the opposition party, currently the Democrats, may be less likely to compromise with the governing party, currently the Republicans, the closer they are to the election date. However, on the flip side, if Republicans are expected to lose governing power in the midterm elections, they are more likely to want to compromise with Democrats on legislation, such as that of a new Farm Bill.
