PARIS – The summer glow didn’t last long for Swiss watches.
Exports in September contracted sharply, slumping 12.4 percent in value and 20.8 percent in volume, according to figures released by the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry on Tuesday.
The industry organization said it was “the most marked of the year” to date, with a total value just hovering above the 2 billion Swiss francs mark.
Monthly export tallies had seen a slight improvement in July and August, although the FHS had expressed a negative outlook for the rest of the year.
For the first nine months of 2024, the Swiss watchmaking sector saw exports decline by 2.7 percent.
September exports to China and Hong Kong, which have now gone down to fifth and fourth place respectively in market ranking by size, fell 49.7 percent and 34.6 percent year-on-year.
This is a further sign of the marked deterioration of the Greater Chinese market, where growth is flagging due to factors including high youth unemployment and an ongoing real estate market slump.
These poor results accounted for two-thirds of the month’s decline, according to the FHS. The decline of these two markets, plus the 10.7 percent and 13.9 percent drops recorded for exports headed respectively to the U.K. and Singapore, made up 80 percent of the global decline.
The global picture was dim, with Asia coming off the worst with a 22.6 percent decline for the region. Europe, where Germany and Spain grew over 5 percent each, was deemed “less concerning” by the industry body despite its 3.4 percent slump.
One bright spot was the U.S., which grew a modest 2.4 percent but consolidated its position as the leading market for Swiss timepieces. Japan, now in second place, rose by only 2 percent that contrasted with its summer boom.
This reflected the combination of a stronger yen and reduced regional price gaps, according to Citi anaylist Thomas Chauvet.
All material categories were impacted by the downturn in exports last month in unit numbers and value, with steel watches continuing their downward trend. Volumes decreased by high double-digit percentages across all categories.
All price ranges were affected, with a bell-shaped curve that saw the mid-price range between 500 and 3,000 Swiss francs contract by a third. Luxury watches, at 3,000 Swiss francs and above at export price, declined 10.9 percent and 7.3 percent in volume and value respectively.
Calling the higher price point “relatively resilient,” Bernstein’s Luca Solca said in a research note that there was “potential for gradual recovery, given the intent of the Chinese government to improve the economy” with stimulus packages despite short-term demand woes affecting the whole luxury industry.
Although the better performance of the high-end watches could be due to higher product availability from brands like Rolex, “this may lead to broader luxury watch resilience than expected,” Solca noted.
Chauvet further pointed out that the Swiss watch export figures of the past three months were “rather inconsistent with negative sell-out trends,” in a research note, as luxury groups start to report third-quarter earnings.
On Tuesday, LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton reported a 4 percent decrease in organic sales for its watches and jewelry division in the third quarter of 2024, while the consensus estimate expects an 8 percent slump for Compagnie Financière Richemont’s specialist watchmakers ahead of its Nov. 8 interim results and a 5 percent decline from the Swatch Group.
