Republican Sen. Joni Ernst faces some intraparty unrest in her home state, Iowa, as she weighs whether to support President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, fueling speculation that she could face a challenge from the right as she runs for re-election in 2026.
Ernst’s allies are not worried about a potential primary challenge, noting that she remains popular among Republicans in the state and that she boasts strong conservative credentials. But conversations with a dozen Iowa Republican leaders and strategists revealed anger toward Ernst among grassroots conservatives who want Republicans to back Trump’s Cabinet picks — and eye-rolling from some other Republicans who say rank-and-file Republicans are not worked up about Ernst to the degree some activists are saying.
The episode illustrates the pressures Republican members of Congress have faced throughout the Trump years — pressures that are redoubling as Trump prepares to retake office with the GOP more firmly in his grasp than ever before. Elected officials are fully aware of Trump’s penchant for seeking revenge against perceived disloyalty, and so are activists who can use high-profile situations as pressure points against those politicians.
And all of this is happening in an era when voter anger and antiestablishment sentiment have made primaries much more dangerous for incumbents.
“This is my issue: She’s not fully supportive of President Trump and his agenda and the selection of his team,” said Bob Vander Plaats, an evangelical power broker in Iowa.
“The people of Iowa, just like the people in this country, feel like they sent the country a message with a resounding win for President Trump,” said Vander Plaats, who endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, not Trump, ahead of the Iowa GOP caucuses. “When you elect a president, you basically kind of assume he gets to assemble his team to execute his agenda.”
But Nevada, Iowa, Mayor Brett Barker, the Story County GOP chair, said he believes anger toward Ernst is “drummed up.”
“Having talked to a lot of voters face to face … most of them are not following the rage of the day on Twitter,” said Barker, who endorsed Nikki Haley ahead of the GOP caucuses.
Still, Vander Plaats said, the future Senate vote on Hegseth’s becoming defense secretary could be fuel for a primary challenge against Ernst. No prominent Republican has stepped forward to oppose Ernst, who is in her second term, but conservative talk radio host Steve Deace recently suggested he could jump into the race.
Deace, however, said he would need Trump’s support.
“Donald Trump is king of the Republican Party; he conquered it, and he earned it,” Deace told NBC News. “If he doesn’t want Joni Ernst to be a senator anymore, she won’t be.”
Trump has not suggested he would back a challenger to Ernst if she opposes his pick. And a person familiar with the Trump transition team’s view of Ernst’s role in the confirmation process said any threats or discussions of mounting a primary challenge against her in 2026 are premature.
But some of his allies, such as Turning Point USA’s Charlie Kirk, have said senators like Ernst should face primary challengers if they do not support Trump’s nominees.
Those threats have drawn pushback from Ernst supporters.
“A lot of this is driven by gaslighting and attention-seeking — what can we say today to get more clicks? Let’s attack a U.S. senator for not doing what we demand her to do right now at this exact second,” former Polk County GOP Chair Will Rogers said.
“Charlie Kirk didn’t elect Joni Ernst to office,” Rogers added. “The people of Iowa did.”
In a statement, an Ernst spokesperson said, “Joni is honored to serve Iowans and remains focused on the reason they sent her to the Senate in the first place — to make the big spenders in Washington squeal.”
In the spotlight
Iowa Republicans are split over whether Ernst will ultimately face a primary challenge. But she has continued to draw scrutiny as she remains in the spotlight during Hegseth’s confirmation process.
Ernst has not said how she will vote on Hegseth, although she has raised questions about a sexual assault allegation leveled at him in 2017. (Hegseth has denied any wrongdoing.)
After a meeting Monday with Hegseth, a former Army National Guard officer and Fox News personality, Ernst said in a statement that she appreciated his “responsiveness and respect for the process.” She said Hegseth had committed to a Defense Department audit and to hiring a senior official who would prioritize preventing sexual assault.
“As I support Pete through this process, I look forward to a fair hearing based on truth, not anonymous sources,” Ernst said.
But that was not enough to quiet some of the grassroots anxiety in a state Trump won by 13 points in November.
“I have not seen any of the energy against her on the ground here dissipate after her statement seeming to soften her stance on Pete’s fight,” Deace said.
Gerald Retzlaff, the Jones County GOP chair, said exasperation with Ernst came up at a recent meeting of three dozen central committee members.
“There was some discussion about the frustration that was going on,” Retzlaff said. “We’re talking a couple of counties out here that are frustrated. … She needs to remember what her voters back here want.”
Bryan Whipp, the Page County GOP chair, said that if Ernst ultimately does not support Hegseth, “there will definitely be more people that are against her, and there’s no doubt about that.”
Primary challenges are on the rise across the board, and veteran Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, drew his first GOP opponent in four decades in 2022. Grassley won that primary with a healthy 72% — an easy win, but also not the coronation he had enjoyed in primaries for his entire Senate career. Ernst was unopposed in her 2020 primary for a second term.
While the Ernst anxiety builds in Iowa’s most MAGA-aligned counties, other GOP leaders in the state argue the indignation has been exaggerated.
David Kochel, an Iowa Republican strategist who has been friends with Ernst since college and has advised her on previous campaigns, said he believes the Ernst backlash exists more online than in the rolling plains of Iowa.
“I think a lot of it is overblown, online people pushing an agenda,” he said. “She is a survivor of sexual assault, and I think that means she’s got questions to ask.”
Primary looming?
Some of Trump’s allies have called for senators who oppose his nominees to face primary challengers.
“Being told Joni Ernst and Lindsay Graham are trying to end Pete Hegseth,” Kirk, of Turning Point USA, posted on X this month without citing his sources. “Pete Hegseth is the redline. If you vote against him, primaries will ensue.”
Billionaire Trump ally Elon Musk has also threatened those who reject Trump’s Cabinet nominees. While it was not specifically aimed at Ernst, Musk’s threat holds added weight given his wealth and proven big spending in support of Trump. Musk, the world’s richest man, spent more than a quarter-billion dollars on groups boosting Trump this year, according to recent campaign finance reports.
Ernst recently told NBC News that Trump has not threatened to support a primary challenge against her.
Ernst has indicated that she intends to run for a third term, and so far Deace is the only prominent Republican to say he could challenge her in a primary.
Deace also suggested former acting U.S. Attorney General Matt Whitaker, whom Trump recently chose to be the U.S. ambassador to NATO, could be a strong challenger. But some Iowa Republicans were skeptical that Whitaker would run against Ernst.
Retzlaff, the Jones County GOP chair, said the Ernst primary rumor mill is already spinning, with “two or three names” circulating. He suggested a candidate could jump in even before the Hegseth confirmation vote.
Ernst’s critics say her role in Hegseth’s nomination is their latest gripe against her.
“What this has provided is rocket fuel to the simmering frustration and angst that was already there,” Deace said.
Some critics pointed to Ernst’s 2022 vote to approve the Respect for Marriage Act, which codified federal protections for same-sex and interracial marriages, leading several Iowa Republican county parties to censure or condemn her. Ernst said at the time that the bill “protects religious freedoms and will simply maintain the status quo in Iowa.”
Her votes on the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, a gun safety bill, and her opposition to banning transgender Americans from serving in the military have also drawn the ire of some Iowans.
But Ernst’s allies say she is a staunch conservative, and they pointed to her work to cut government spending, starting with a headline-grabbing campaign ad in 2014 that highlighted her experience castrating hogs and pledged to take on Washington politicians and “make ’em squeal.
A decade on, Ernst’s dedication to cutting government spending remains. She is the chair and founder of the new Senate DOGE Caucus, referring to the “Department of Government Efficiency,” which Trump has named Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to lead. Ernst recently released a report suggesting federal employees have abused work-from-home policies and detailing new ways to cut federal government spending.
“No one should attempt to say that she is a RINO. That’s beyond the pale,” said David Oman, a GOP strategist and former Iowa GOP co-chair, who was Ernst’s finance chair in 2014, using the acronym for “Republican in Name Only.”
“Are there some people who have been disappointed because she doesn’t have a perfect MAGA scorecard? Yes,” Oman added later. “Does it rise to the level of a primary challenge that would cost tens of millions of dollars, Republicans fighting Republicans? I doubt it.”
Kochel, Ernst’s friend and adviser, pointed to Grassley’s primary to argue no candidate is immune to a challenge from the right.
“She’ll win a primary and a general election. She’s an outstanding candidate, but more importantly, she’s a good person, a good leader for Iowa,” Kochel said confidently.
Gary Leffler, a Trump superfan who recently announced his candidacy for Polk County GOP chair, urged patience, noting that Hegseth has yet to come up for a vote — neither have other Trump priorities for his second term.
“We’re in the fifth inning of the game. … Let’s see what happens,” Leffler said.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
