Even though the dust has barely settled on the 2024 Formula 1 season, it’s hard not to get excited about what 2025 has in store.
The primary reason for that is that F1 has never looked as open as it was at the end of the 2024 season. Four teams and seven drivers won races throughout the year, and even though the lion’s share went to world champion Max Verstappen, the spread of victories in the second half of the campaign was far wider than it has been for more than a decade.
Going into next year, the sport‘s technical regulations remain stable, meaning there’s no reason why one team should steal a march on the others.
What’s more, with a major regulation overhaul looming for 2026, splitting development time between an already competitive 2025 car and a 2026 project that will determine a team’s success for the next five years, will likely be weighted towards the future for all the top four teams. As a result, there’s a good chance the competitive nature of the final races of 2024 will spill into 2025 and provide a title battle for the ages.
And that makes the challenge of picking a favourite all the more difficult.
Max Verstappen | Red Bull
Age at 2025 season’s start: 27
Championship position in 2024: 1st
Wins in 2024: 9
Coming off the back of four consecutive titles, there’s a compelling case for Verstappen to make it five from five (something only achieved by Michael Schumacher previously) in 2025.
After his struggles in the second half of the season, it’s easy to forget he scored nine race victories in 2024 — a number that would usually represent a level of domination in a single season. It’s also more than double any of his nearest rivals and equal to the number of victories scored by Lando Norris, Charles Leclerc and Oscar Piastri combined.
His early-season points haul when the Red Bull was still the class of the field provided the foundation to Verstappen’s championship, but it was his ability to grind out results in a sub-par car in the second half of the year that saw the title wrapped with two races remaining.
But while Verstappen was in a class of his own for large parts of the year, things haven’t been quite right at Red Bull for several months now. The car’s competitiveness has slowly been tailing off since May, when Norris beat Verstappen fair and square for the first time, and big names from its engineering team have been heading for the exit.
Design guru Adrian Newey announced his departure in May, and it’s perhaps no coincidence that answers to Red Bull’s on-track struggles were harder to find from that point onwards. Newey will have contributed very little to the 2025 car and it remains to be seen if the team’s operational excellence will suffer now that sporting director Jonathan Wheatley has been released to join Sauber as team principal.
For the past three seasons it’s been a bold statement to bet against Verstappen for the following year, but if Red Bull’s tailspin continues into 2025, he might not even be in the top three.
Lando Norris | McLaren
Age at 2025 season’s start: 25
Championship position in 2024: 2nd
Wins in 2024: 4
After winning the final race of the season in Abu Dhabi, Norris delivered a clear statement: “Next year will by my year.”
And who are we to disagree with him? After all, he ran Verstappen the closest over the course of the 2024 season and his results were what won McLaren its first constructors’ championship in 26 years.
Norris’ 2024 season came alive after McLaren delivered a major upgrade at the Miami Grand Prix, with four victories following in the next 18 races. Undoubtedly there were errors along the way, but he seemed to learn from them and finished the season in Abu Dhabi with a composed victory from pole position to secure the the constructors’ crown.
However, even if you make the Miami Grand Prix race one in 2024, Norris would still finish 11 points shy of Verstappen over the remaining rounds.
This season was his first shot at an F1 championship and it ultimately slipped away from him, with the wet Brazilian Grand Prix at the start of November a clear turning point in which Verstappen excelled and Norris’ form went missing. He may be the most logical choice to deprive Verstappen of title No. 5, but there are still questions he needs to answer if he’s going to complete the job next year.
Oscar Piastri | McLaren
Age at 2025 season’s start: 23
Championship position in 2024: 4th
Wins in 2024: 2
If McLaren continues to get it right, Norris’ biggest threat might not come from Verstappen or Ferrari but from within his own team. Although Piastri wasn’t consistent enough to mount any kind of title challenge in 2024, his peaks were often higher than Norris’ and there were occasions when he looked like the better of the two McLaren drivers.
It’s important to remember this was only Piastri’s second season in F1, yet he took two race wins and six podiums. If he can maintain the very best of his form across the whole season, he would provide a serious headache for Norris (and McLaren’s team bosses), and perhaps even emerge as the favourite to win the title.
Charles Leclerc | Ferrari
Age at 2025 season’s start: 27
Championship position in 2024: 3rd
Wins in 2024: 3
Leclerc’s 2024 season was one of lofty heights — including his race wins in Monaco and Monza — and frustrating lows as Ferrari’s performance faded in the middle part of the year. Amid the end-of-season title battle between Verstappen and Norris, his performances often went under the radar, but there’s a strong case to say if he and Ferrari can simply continue their form into 2025, Leclerc will be the driver to beat.
Reset the points to zero after the summer break onwards and Leclerc emerges victorious over the remaining 11 races with 179 points to Norris’ 175 and Verstappen’s 160. During that period he only finished off the podium at three races (Singapore, São Paulo and Las Vegas) and not once finished outside the top five.
After upgrades in Monza and Singapore, Ferrari was consistently in the hunt for podiums, and that could easily be turned into a title campaign in 2025 if the Italian team can finally find consistency across an entire season.
Age at 2025 season’s start: 40
Championship position in 2024: 7th
Wins in 2024: 2
If the Ferrari is quick enough for Leclerc to be in a title fight, Hamilton would almost certainly be in the mix, too. All eyes will be on the seven-time world champion as he makes his debut in red next year, but entering his 19th consecutive season in F1, there is very little that fazes Hamilton.
His 2024 season was far from his best, with persistent struggles in qualifying and moments where he seemed ready to give up on his Mercedes team. But the challenge of something new at Ferrari will no doubt reenergise Hamilton and could see him add to his already remarkable set of records.
When opportunities to perform arose this season, Hamilton looked more like the unstoppable version of himself from seasons past. His victory at the British Grand Prix, charge from tenth to second in Las Vegas and spirited drive to fourth place from 16th in Abu Dhabi all act as proof that he still has what it takes.
If Ferrari’s end-of-2024 form carries over into 2025, it will be the first time since 2021 that Hamilton will have a car capable of fighting for a title. That alone would be worth tuning in for next season.
Age at 2025 season’s start: 27
Championship position in 2024: 6th
Wins in 2024: 2
Mercedes’ performance over the course of the season was the most sporadic of the top four teams. Victories in Austria, Silverstone, Belgium and Las Vegas showed that the car was capable of wins when the conditions were right, but all too often that performance went missing, leaving Hamilton and Russell out of contention.
But Russell was still a star performer over the course of 2024. In late June, he picked up the pieces after a collision between Norris and Verstappen to win in Austria, in July he would have secured a second victory in Belgium had his car not been 3.3 pounds underweight, and in November he dominated the Las Vegas Grand Prix weekend.
He finished the year 22 points ahead of teammate Hamilton and outqualified the seven-time champion 24-6 across all sprint and grand prix qualifying sessions.
Such a record against a driver like Hamilton indicates Russell has what it takes to win a championship if Mercedes can extract performance from its car across a wider range of circuits and conditions next year.
A surprise in store?
Then there’s the question of how Russell’s rookie teammate Andrea Kimi Antonelli will perform. Even if Mercedes has the fastest car, it will likely be too much to expect him to challenge for a title at the age of 18. What we do know about Antonelli is that he is incredibly quick, and if he can marry that with consistency, then he could give Russell a run for his money.
