Bitcoin (BTC) is currently sliding along the top of its bull flag after breaking out last week. Will the price fall back inside the bull flag and face being rejected, or will a bounce occur that sends $BTC back towards its $73,800 all-time high?
Tudor Jones is long Bitcoin and gold
Famous financial entrepreneur Paul Tudor Jones recently claimed that “all roads lead to inflation”. He was basically saying that it doesn’t really matter who wins the upcoming US presidential election, the U.S. government’s debt will still be there. He did however add that he was long Bitcoin and gold, which he obviously believes will be inflation hedges.
Global liquidity increasing rapidly
Global liquidity continues to increase, as the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) added $560 billion to its balance sheet between May and September, while at the same time, the U.S. Federal Reserve increased its own balance sheet by $200 billion over the same period.
Trump win could propel $BTC higher
The chances of Donald Trump winning a second term in office appear to be increasing, as per Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market. Polymarket currently has Trump at 64.3%, while Harris is at 35.6%. However, traditional pollsters generally have both Trump and Harris as neck and neck. A win for Trump would be very favourable for Bitcoin.
First red candle dips back into bull flag
Source: TradingView
The short term time frame for $BTC does give some cause for concern. The first red candle to go below the bull flag trend line could be the start of a return inside the bull flag and an ultimate rejection of this level.
That said, all the short term Stochastic RSIs (momentum indicators) have bottomed, and a cross back up could save the day.
In addition, the 0.382 Fibonacci is at $65,450. If this can hold the $BTC price, and a bounce happens from this level, this could actually be very bullish.
Not too much to worry about for $BTC bulls
Source: TradingView
Looking at the $BTC price on the daily time frame, there doesn’t really appear to be anything to worry about thus far. The top bull flag trendline is still acting as support, and there is also a reasonable horizontal support level where the price is now.
Given that the Stochastic RSIs on most time frames are still in $BTC’s favour, a bounce from here would still be favourite. That said, if the price does come crashing down, below $59,000 would be a lower low. However, that is quite some way off.
A scenario may be that the price does in fact come down further into the bull flag, this would perhaps have the effect of shaking out those going long, before the price gets sent back to the upside once again. Short term traders beware.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
